India’s Strategic Neighbourhood Playbook Unveiled: Plan A and Plan B in Action
Recent events in Bangladesh, Nepal, and the Maldives offer insight into India’s nuanced neighbourhood strategy, revealing a two-fold plan involving friendly regime nurturing (Plan A) and fostering working relationships with less amicable regimes (Plan B).
Plan A: Nurturing Friendly Political Arrangements
In Bangladesh, despite international concerns about democratic backsliding, India supported Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League. India prioritized political comfort, considering Hasina the better democratic option compared to alternatives. Despite reservations from some quarters, Delhi’s calculus focused on preventing an Islamist-friendly government with potential links to Pakistan and China.
In Nepal, a coalition government shift towards a more India-friendly stance was orchestrated, aligning with India’s interests. By supporting the Nepali Congress, India aimed for a balanced approach, mitigating the anti-Indian stance that had emerged during K. P. Oli’s tenure.
Plan B: Working Relationships with Difficult Regimes
India’s evolving strategy acknowledges rising nationalism, social media influence, and China’s role in shaping regional politics. The approach involves patiently accepting democratic mandates, developing working relationships, demonstrating cooperation benefits, signaling economic costs for unfriendly policies, and waiting for China to face challenges in democratic nations.
Maldives exemplifies Plan B, where India welcomed election results despite a shift in foreign policy orientation. Delhi maintained strategic discussions privately and used market access denial as a tool to influence policy decisions.
Balancing Act and Leverage Building
India’s strategy involves a delicate balancing act between respecting democratic mandates and safeguarding core interests. Leveraging market access, Delhi signals consequences for policies contrary to its interests. While risking public opinion backlash, the approach aims to demonstrate consequences at a diplomatic level without resorting to harsh measures like blockades.
The Modi-Ajit Doval-S Jaishankar approach showcases adaptability, emphasizing shaping democratic outcomes discreetly when possible and respecting electoral verdicts when necessary. It underscores working with external partners, economic connections, and deploying carrot-and-stick policies to achieve core security and economic goals.
India’s strategic playbook in the neighborhood reflects a dynamic response to evolving geopolitical challenges, aiming for a delicate equilibrium between fostering friendly relations and navigating through complex diplomatic scenarios.